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Best of Times... Worst of Times

Friday 6 May 2011: Yesterday’s elections brought surprise wins and dramatic losses. Counting is still underway, but two hours away from a final declaration it’s safe to say that the country has voted no to AV. The majority is expected to be decisive - around 60% - on a higher than predicted turnout of 40%. The issue of electoral reform has been put to bed and the beleaguered Liberal Democrats will have to look elsewhere to advance their long-term political interests.

The headline news today was Alex Salmond’s remarkable achievement of an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament, taking 68 seats out of 129. Contrary to arguments made by both the Yes and No to AV campaigns, we now have the unprecedented situation of a majority in Scotland produced by a proportional system and a Coalition in Westminster voted in under first past the post rules.

Labour took a drubbing in a result that paves the way for a referendum on Scottish independence. Today’s result significantly increases the SNP’s chances of building on the 33% that support independence in time for a referendum - possibly to coincide with the General Election in 2015.

The Prime Minister won’t let this blot on the horizon mar celebrations of the Conservative Party’s remarkably good set of local election results. Against predictions of a 500-1000 seat loss, the Conservatives made a net gain of 52 seats and maintained their share of the vote. The Liberal Democrats have lost almost half their councillors and control of several key councils including Sheffield in Nick Clegg’s constituency.

There are unlikely to be any clear cut giveaways to the Liberal Democrats in terms of national policy. Over the next few weeks the Coalition’s narrative will be business as usual. Behind the scenes the Liberal Democrats will need to make a decision; can they achieve enough in their time in Government to prevent an echo of this week’s result in the general election in four years' time?